Contingent: 1.) subject to chance. 2.) occurring or existing only if certain other circumstances are the case; dependent on.
“Tucked away in the pages of a new report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office is a startling statistic: 40.4% of the U.S. workforce is now made up of contingent workers—that is, people who don’t have what we traditionally consider secure jobs.”
It seems reasonable to me to predict that contingent work will only grow as we see a continuing increase in the rate of change in global economic markets. Indeed, another recent report mentioned that the expected rise in contingent workers is 23% by 2020. If that prediction holds, then by 2020, contingent workers will complete 50% of all work.
Of course, forecasting a particular future is a fool’s game. We can predict multiple future states based on various assumptions. We can even assign some probabilities of each state occurring. There is no assurance that our predictions will materialize in the “real” world. Thus, to move quickly as the future unfolds, our companies must be nimble and have a flexible workforce—not just flexible in numbers but also skills.
To mitigate one of our most significant expenses, human labor, we would do well to hedge our bets by investing in automation and by enlisting contingent workers. We define contingent workers as agency temps, on-call workers, contract company workers, independent contractors, self-employed workers, standard part-time workers. That way, assumptions proved wrong will have a minimal effect on our organizations as we make adjustments. I believe this is a more honest way of employing people. There is no misconception about committing to lifetime employment on either party’s part. All are in agreement that when we complete contracts, then our deal will be renewed or not as business dictates.
I have been part of the contingent workforce for more than 14 years now. I find it to be a more honest relationship with “clients.” I do not expect that everyone will feel as comfortable as I do with this arrangement. Yet that, precisely, is where we are heading (some will say we have arrived). The average tenure for knowledge workers appears to be 24 to 36 months as an employee, and then we are looking for the next “job.” So there isn’t consistent employment for many, perhaps even most, workers.
Employment models will all have to change to accommodate this new reality. Worker retirement and savings plans will have to be portable. Healthcare will have to be a much more reasonable cost than it is presently. Governments will likely insist that contingent workers keep more detailed and verifiable revenue records. We will all have to understand that “job security” is something we develop internally, not something that is provided by a big company.
When it comes to employment, we are in a transition period. The old model (W2, full time) is giving way to transitory employment needs driven by global markets, shifting production, automation, and educational requirements. I’m not convinced we are moving quickly enough to keep the transition smooth, but at least the changes are making the business publications. That’s a decent start!