I mentioned, in a previous post, that I liked the phrase coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (NNT), “epistemic arrogance.” I will avoid trying to expand on the meaning of the words but instead will refer you to NNT’s book. Suffice it to say that many studies show that we humans are far too confident in what we believe we know about our complex world. And the more education, the more hubris. I know I completely fall prey to this all too human trap of thinking I “know” what I need to know. If I am
not careful, if I do not go out of my way, I will make decisions (large and small) based on incomplete, faulty, or misguiding information.
We Can't Know What We Don't Know
“Epistemic arrogance bears a double effect: we overestimate what we know, and underestimate uncertainty, by compressing the range of possible uncertain states (i.e., by reducing the space of the unknown).”
As leaders, especially as business leaders, we have to strike a balance between analysis paralysis and epistemic arrogance. It is appropriate to frequently question our underlying assumptions and even to demand of ourselves and our team full identification of all the assumptions we are making about future markets, products, and business models. And, as previously mentioned, we should not believe in our forecasts! Our economy is far too complex for us to reduce future revenues, profits, market share, or product sales to a single number. More important, perhaps, is understanding that our epistemic arrogance affects more than just our forecasting. It changes the way we organize our businesses, the models we use to provide products and services as well as the view (judgments) we have of our customers and their customers.
To achieve a more mature, open-minded view of future events and our ability to know what is happening, we have to create a safe environment for ourselves and our employees. We need to be able to function without precisely knowing what is going to happen, and we have to be able to admit to that lack of precise knowledge. Otherwise, we could quickly come to believe our own “spreadsheets,” errors, and all! That can be deadly hubris in the indifferent universe and business environment.
[Reformatted 9/2020 for our new website.]